Wet Weekend, Fall Like Weather on the Way

After a very weird weather weekend, it looks like Mother Nature is settling on a definite trend towards fall like weather this week. But first, this weekend was quite unique as there were several low pressure systems and atmospheric disturbances that impacted the area at one time or another. With a muggy, tropical airmass in place, this kept the rain threat in the forecast all weekend. Various parts of the area were hit at different times and as a result there was noticable lack of contunity with the totals. Some areas like NE NJ got hit hard on Friday, While parts of the Lehigh Valley got hit with nearly 4 inches of rain on Sunday!

Looking forward, a slow moving upper level low will bring an extended shower threat to the area for the middle of the week. A few showers may arrive Tuesday Afternoon, but the bulk of the rain should arrive Tuesday Night into early Wednesday. It looks like the heaviest rain goes by into Upstate NY & New England, but a decent amount of rain, at least 0.25-0.50″ is likely all the way down to Maryland. Once the weather quiets down, expect highs only in the 60’s as some cooler air arrives to close out the week.

 

GFS Forecast Rainfall Tue-Thu

Thu-Sat Weather Discussion

Right now, a tight area of low-pressure is located a few hundred miles off the Carolina coast. Still not enough characteristics for this to be a tropical system just yet and it will likely either remain an extratropical low or become a subtropical storm. Yesterday, I did not give enough credit to how strong the New England high is and therefore was probably to early on precip timing. It looks like we will not get into rain across NJ, PA or SE PA until at least the early evening and in more NW spots, not until tonight. Upper-Air soundings show how very dry the lower levels of the atmosphere are this morning.

The Caribbean blob of showers and t-storms is getting a little better organized, but still not a tropical system. I doubt that this will get its act together into a classic Tropical Storm. With the track of the Carolina low looking further inland, the Caribbean system will probably head further east of New England later in the weekend.

Infrared satellite image of 9-25-08

Thoughts on the Tropics

Interesting set up the next few days…There is some sort of disturbance trying to develop off the Carolina coast and we are not sure whether it will be a surface low or just a trough. Regardless, this should bring in periods of rain and wind, especially along the coastal areas where a prolonged Easterly fetch could cause some coastal flooding problems. We are still waiting to see if a disturbance in the Carribean will form into a Tropical Depression or Storm over the next few days. If it does and starts making its travels Northward, it could get slingshoted into the Northeast, because of the upper-air set-up. I definitely would not buy into all the ridiculous media-hype that I am sure is on its way, however the next few days developments could make for an intriquing weekend for the region.

Increasing winds later in the week

Yesterday a cold front came thru the area and that has brought some cooler temps and a mix of sunshine and stratocu clouds. It also has brought in a strong high pressure system that is residing to the North. This set-up is going to remain thru a good portion of the week. Meanwhile, low pressure is going to set up off the SE US coast, possibly in conjunction with a developing tropical system. As this drifts North, the precip will be blocked for awhile because of the high, but the increased pressure gradient is going to create some gusty Easterly winds. With a prolonged onshore wind like this, there could be some coastal flooding problems all along the Eastern Seaboard.

Dry Weather Continues

I was reading Sean’s forecast this morning, and one thing in his discussion caught my attention. He mentioned how dry it has been lately, and how that will not change that much in the foreseeable future. If not for Tropical Storm Hanna and the heavy downpours of September 9th, we would have some increasing concern for the potential for drought.

Typically, the fall season is rather dry across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. One of the main reasons for the dry fall season is that conditions are no longer favorable for pop-up thunderstorms and at the same time, ordinary storm systems are still on the weak side. In fact, even in this area, a portion of the average monthly rainfall this time of year is based on remnants of tropical systems!

With all that said, the best threat we have for a shower will be late  Sunday with the passage of cool front. But as has been the case lately, we’ll probably just see a few clouds. The worst case scenario would be a sprinkle, but even that appears unlikely at this point.

A Taste of Fall!

NWS Watches/Warnings (Lt. Blue: Freeze Warning, Dk. Blue: Frost Advisory)

A cold front that pushed through the area earlier today will bring about a fall feel to our weather the next several days. The front went by quietly, with just a few clouds passing through the area, and no hint of any precipitation. The airmass behind this front is the coolest so far this year, and many places in Upstate NY & New England may see their first frost or freeze tonight. The conditions are quite favorable tonight for frost/freeze in those areas thanks to sprawling Canadian high pressure which will keep skies clear, and winds light. Closer to home, tonight likely will be the coolest night of the year so far. Lows will generally be in the 40’s, though a few 50’s are likely in urban areas, and it would not be surprising to see a few upper 30’s in the usually cooler spots.

Ike Long Gone…Nice Weather on the way

As you probably know by now, Ike made landfall at Galveston, TX in the predawn hours of Saturday. As was expected, a storm surge, battering waves and strong winds caused extensive damage on the island, which may not be inhabitable for several days, perhaps even a few weeks. Even in Houston, there was plenty of wind & flooding, where nearly everyone lost power for a time. Since Saturday, Ike quickly moved north and northeastward, and is already well into the Canadian Maratimes, not before dropping a lot of rain well inland. 

Galveston, TX (click2houston.com)

Closer to home, we’ve got a nice week of weather coming up.  After that brief interlude of July like heat this weekend, cooler and more seasonable weather is settling in to the area right now.  At this time it looks to be a dry week.  The only chance of rain, such that it is, would be early on Thursday when a cool front will slide through the area. Like this morning’s cold frontal passage, there just is not much moisture to work with, and there may not even be that much in the way of clouds either. Have a good week!

Thoughts on Ike

This is one massive storm as it is taking up much of the Gulf. What has been somewhat strange with the storm is why it is not intensifying (though it is a Cat. 2) signficantly. Now there is a little bit of sheer from the North and dry air has been holding to the west of the storm, so that has had some impact. But, it has been over the very warm gulf waters for awhile and the sheer is not that great. A couple theories is that the size of the storm is churning up the gulf so much, that upwelling is bringing cooler waters up. Also, the enormous size may be contributing to why the hurricane can’t organize the strongest winds into the center. I’m not sure of any studies/theories on the size-strengthening relationship, but it is a thought. Regardless, there is some great concern with storm surge in this storm, because of the size. Early this morning, we have already seen some flooding in Galveston.

Infrared Satellite of Hurricane Ike (9-12-08, 12 PM)

More on the EF1 Allentown Tornado

As mentioned before, tropical systems have a lot of wind sheer due to their strong rotation. As a result, tornadoes can quickly form and dissipate. Some systems have more favorable conditions and more tornadoes than others. Tropical Storm Hanna was not the best system for this type of severe weather, however there was one tornado in the Allentown area. NWS Mt. Holly, found EF1 damage on the East side of the city, just south of Union Blvd. Past radar images show just for a very brief time, a couple pixels of high reflectivity and some wind rotation. Low cloud heights helped in the quick formation and dissipation of the tornado. Unfortunately because of the residentual area where the tornado moved over, approximately 100 homes were damaged with an estimated $1.5 million in damage (from 69news).

 

 (from NWS Mount Holly)

Tuesday Squall Line

We’ll make this update quick as it has been quite busy here this morning. Very surprised at how well organized the pre-frontal squall line became early this morning. Once it developed, stronger upper level winds propogated the line quickly, with the Northern area moving pretty fast. We did not have any wind damage or flooding here in Hackettstown, we are sitting at just over 1.25″ with rainfall. However, there have been reports of flooding with parts of the Parkway closed. Behind this line, it is quite unlikely that more t-storms will be able to refire.  The atmosphere is pretty much tapped out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rest of the Svr T-storm Watch dropped.

Weekend Hanna Wrap-Up

Well Hanna has quickly come and gone across the area and as we were thinking with Ken’s previous postings, it was a quick heavy rain maker thru the area. Tropical Storms that usually move thru the Mid-Atlantic tend to pick more speed than the models anticipate as it gets caught up in the Westerlies. A decent swath of 2-4 inch amounts were found thru much of NJ with higher amounts in some of the Northern counties and CT as well as the DC area. We were definitely spared some river flooding because of the antecedent dry conditions, however there were numerous roadway flooding amongst other problems.

Winds were gusty and quite breezy at times, but nothing near sustained Tropical Storm force. There were a few reports of a couple trees coming down and other areas of damage. One interesting note, was the EF-1 tornado confirmed in Allentown. With tropical systems, it is extremely difficult to pick up where the rotation on Radar is along with any quick spin-up tornadoes. This was the only confirmed tornado during the event.

Flooding in Newark, NJ (From the Star-Ledger)

Tropical Storm Hanna Update

NHC TS Hanna Track & Watches/Warnings

After watching Hanna for several days now, it’s getting a bit better organized, moving faster and will begin bringing showers to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast beginning tonight. There are still some uncertainties as to exactly where the heaviest rain axis will be. But the area is in store for a widespread 1-3″ rainfall (which we certainly could us) with some 2-4″ andhigher amounts where those heavier rain bands finally do setup. Wind gusts will also  be a concern, especially for coastal locations where some gusts into the 30, perhaps 40 mph range, with lesser gusts inland. While Friday Night and Saturday will be heavily impacted by Hanna, the good news is that the storm will be accelerating, and showers should come to a quick end Saturday Evening, setting up a nice finish to the weekend. Stay dry tomorrow & enjoy.

Waiting for Hanna

 

As the region waits to see how now Tropical Storm Hanna will impact the weekend, the weather will begin to take on a sticky feel in the area.  In fact, widespread highs near or a few degrees above 90 are expected with August type humidity building back into the area for Thursday.  Temperatures will cool off a few degrees as we approach the weekend, but unfortunately humidity levels will remain rather uncomfortable, especially for September. Depending on the exact track of Hanna…Saturday has the potential to be a very rainy & windy day. As a result, we’ll have to watch for some flooding potential. While far from certain, due in large part to Hanna’s erratic motions of the past 24-48 hours, some model projections show rather substantial rainfall amounts in the Friday Night to Saturday time period. Stay tuned.

GFS Forecasted Rainfall Fri-Sun

 

 

 

Tropical Quartet

As we approach the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, there are 4 systems to talk about this morning. As Gustav weakens into a remnant low after making landfall in Louisiana yesterday, and by all accounts causing less damage than expected, attention is shifting to Tropical Storms Hanna and Ike, and soon to be Tropical Storm Josephine.

For the mid-Atlantic and northeast US, Tropical Storm Hanna needs to be watched closely. Current model projections bring it back to Hurricane Strength before making a landfall near the Georgia or South Carolina coastline.  It appears that Hanna will be steered north and east somewhere between the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Coastline by a trough of low pressure over the Central U.S. and a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. This has the potential to bring a couple of inches of rain the area in the Late Friday – Saturday time frame. After the recent dry spell, this rain will certainly be welcomed, we’ll just have to keep an eye for the potential of a flood threat. 

 

NHC/NOAA Hanna Forecast Track

Another very dry high pressure system

Across most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, dewpoints have fallen all the way into the 40s and this is the second time we’ve seen a similar cool August air mass. This strong, dry high pressure system should help to suppress a lot of Fay’s leftover moisture and clouds further South and West. It is getting very dry out there with many spots coming in at less than inch of precip for the month. We’ll have more on that later in the week.