Updates for Next Season

Hello everyone! Well it certainly was quite a busy winter period thru January and Early February. Not a ton of snow, but a lot of threats. There were a couple of interesting snow events during that period though. This has kept us pretty busy and regretfully not as up-to-date with the blog as we hoped for. However, we are going to revamp the blog and set things up for next year. Send us feedback as to what type of info you would like to see here and what you would be interested in hearing from our meteorologists as we post. Thanks!!!!

Where is the surface freezing line

As of 11:30 AM…the freezing line is mostly in the higher elevations of the region. Places however at 32-33 are the Poconos, Sussex County, NJ, the Hudson Valley (north of Westchester Co.) and Western-Central Mass.

Most of the reports we have gotten to the office have been patchy icing across higher elevation trees and metal surfaces. Most of the pavements are holding, even without treatment. That may change thru the day cause temps will be within a degree or two of where they’re at now.

Coastal Storm mostly rain….but

What a nice day most folks are seeing with temps in the 50s and 60s region-wide. As many of you have seen in your forecasts we’re looking rain across most regions for the coastal storm Thurs Night – Friday as the track brings it over land. Central and NE PA, Hudson Valley, N. CT and W. MA are going to be set up for a wintry mix, however we are even concerned for a few other areas to the South of these regions.

The reason is despite very warm air aloft, a shallow cold front cross tonight. Winds behind this front are North or Northeasterly and take a look at the map below. Those are afternoon temps in the 20s and teens across Canada and some of this air tries to move to the surface. Therefore, we are keeping the threat that some places may mix during this storm. Also, still could see some wet snow at the tail end of this event.

Early Afternoon Temps 12-10-08

Radar looks worse than reality this morning

A lot of virga this morning, but there has been some light snow and dustings very early this morning in the Poconos and S. Hudson Valley. Mass. and Conn. may see some of these dustings as well. Otherwise, the majoity of this is virga.

Late Week Coastal Storm looking more likely

We just took a peak at some of the new 12z computer model data and a secondary storm for late in the week (trending towards Friday) is looking more likely. We’re going to analyze some of this data and though it is much too far away, we agree with the set-up being very good for a coastal storm. The big question…precip-type. We’re likely going to be dealing with a mix bag of precip (snow-sleet-rain) throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Meanwhile, quite a roller-coaster ride for our temps this week. Arctic air today, then well above normal Wednesday, before colder air ends late week. Coldest spot we have seen this morning from this airmass: Watertown, NY at a beautiful -14 degrees.

One Computer morning output for Friday Afternoon

Snow Threat Still a Go Sat. Nt/Sunday

GFS Model Forecast For Sun AM

An approaching low moving across the Great Lakes and a developing off shore low will bring the threat for light snow to most of the Mid-Atlantic & NE this weekend. Most areas are likely to see coatings – 1″ of snow from Interior CT southwestward into SE PA. Areas further south and along the coast may mix with rain for a time, with temperatures near or above freezing, keeping accumulations to slushy coatings to about 1/2″…with the highest amounts likely on colder surfaces.

 

Why aren’t forecasted snow amounts going to be higher? Ordinarily an Alberta Clipper like this over the Great Lakes would provide more in the way of snowfall for the area (maybe 1-2″) but the secondary low development of the coast usually disrupts wind and precipitation fields between the lows, which is where the I-95 corridor happens to be in this case. Watch for forecast & alert updates this weekend!

Cold Front Pushing East

After a brief icing “scare” this morning in parts of Northeast PA, Northern NJ and the Hudson Valley of NY, attention shifts to cold air moving this direction from the west. Everything still looks pretty much as it did yesterday…precip should fall as rain…with maybe just a few higher elevations briefly mixing with wet snow at the very end of the event. Just watch for refreeze tonight! Temperatures will drop below 32 in most places, and as such any leftover wetness on the ground will freeze up.

Surface Map 7 AM 12/4/08

As for Saturday Night’s snow threat, it is beginning to look more likely that many areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have to engage in some sort of snow removal. Moisture is limited…but coatings up to an inch of snow is a distinct possibility by Sunday Afternoon.  Stay tuned.

Colder air on the way…

Seasonably mild and dry weather will be coming to an end across the area with a cold front on the way late Thursday. Temperatures should remain warm enough even in the higher elevations to preclude much of a snow threat with the precipitation associated with the frontal passage…though a few wet snow flakes may briefly mix in during the evening hours in those locations.

Looking ahead…there are snow threats for much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast late Saturday into Sunday as a trough of low pressure moves through the region. Moisture appears to be limited, but most places have the threat for an accumulation. Due to the positioning of the trough, the threat is just as valid in Maryland and Delaware as it is in some typically favored snow showers areas like North Jersey. Keep an eye out for updates in your daily forecasts (if applicable) tomorrow!

Trough Pattern for 12/7/08

Blog Posts Resuming

It is December 2nd and I think we can officially say that winter has begun. Sorry for the lack of posts over the last month and a half as we have been setting up our winter operations. The early start to the year made things a little busy, but look for posts to be updated nearly daily and we are going to try and blog a little during storms to help you understand what is going on with the storm or event.

Good luck this season!!!

Summer Holding On…

It’s not very often that a weekend in the middle of October can make a case for being a top-10 weekend, but it surely seemed to be the case the last few days. With a sprawling area of high pressure in place, and warm air above the surface, the region had warm, sunny days and clear and cool nights. It is after all October, and changes are in the offing. But it probably won’t be until the end of the week when the ridge completely gives way, allowing more seasonable temperatures. In the meantime, make sure to capitalize on the mainly dry (slight shower threat on Thursday) and mild temperatures.

Regional Highs 10/12/08 (Penn State)

Cold weather gone for awhile

This morning lows were just mild enough (mid-upper 30s) to preclude some frost forming on vegetation across SE PA and Central-South NJ last night. Scattered high-level cirrus clouds may have kept temps up just a bit to keep temps at those levels. A weak system is approaching the area for tonight and that will bring some occasional light rain showers until tomorrow morning. Then we have a pattern shift with a deep trough moving into Western US. This forces a ridge to build into the East and temps are going to rise. 70s and maybe even a few 80s are going to become common for highs starting tomorrow. The weekend is looking fantastic with sunshine and warm Fall temps. Enjoy.

 

500mb Upper-Air Map for 10-10-08 (8 AM)

 

 

 

The First Frost

Many locales experienced their first frost of the season early this Morning. Numerous towns dropped to the low-mid 30s across PA, N. NJ and SE NY. The October 7 date is somewhat average for a lot of spots. Ironically, the NJ State Climatologist points to 10-7 as the average date for then Northern climate section (excluding NE NJ). Of course this varies greatly from Sussex to Morris Counties. Some of the cooler temps found were Mount Pocono at 30 degrees and Sussex, NJ as well as Westhampton, LI at 31. The always cold Bradford, PA in the Northwest Mtns of the state dropped down to 24. I think that tonight will be slightly colder everywhere as the center of the highs sits right over the area. Winds should be calm and with slightly lower dewpoints. Look for some widespread frost over interior areas across the Northeast.

Low Temperatures for the morning of 10-7-08

Fall Weather Has Arrived

As was well advertised, an upper-level low has brought much cooler weather to the area. Temperatures even in warm spots like Central Park, struggled to top 60 degrees yesterday, and that will likely be the case again today. The good news is that should be improvement into the week as the low slowly loosens its grip on the area. We should see more in the way of sunshine and temperatures rebounding closer to normal levels. Enjoy the fall weekend!

GFS Upper-Air Pattern 2 PM 10-3

Here Comes Fall

After a few brief tastes of fall so far this year, it looks like the first sustained and long lasting brush with cooler temperatures is on the way. A slow moving upper-level low, will keep a cool pocket of air over the Northeastern US through the weekend. The same upper level-low is responsible for keeping a fair amount of daytime cloudiness in the area for the next few days, along with low grade rain shower or sprinkle threats. As for temperature ranges, it looks like the 60’s will about do it for the next couple of days with no source for mild air around.  Looking forward towards next week, it looks like a ridging pattern will become established, with a series of dry, warm days and cool nights.

Tropical Storm Laura

TS Laura 10:15 AM ET

After developing a few days ago in the Northern Atlantic Ocean as a Subtropical Storm (a low that has both Tropical & Non-tropical characteristics) earlier today, Laura became a regular Tropical Storm with winds of 60 MPH moving northward. Due to Laura’s northward treck, it will quickly lose its tropical nature in large part due to quickly approaching cooler waters. But as the satellite representation shows , for the time being…Laura looks like a formidable tropical storm, even at a such a high latitude over the open waters. (The storm is at about 40 Deg. North, slightly north of NYC’s latitude)

Elsewhere in the Tropics, there is an area of distubed weather over the SE Gulf Of Mexico/NW Caribbean. But at this time, it does not look favorable for development as it shifts to the east towards the Atlantic Ocean.