As of 11:30 AM…the freezing line is mostly in the higher elevations of the region. Places however at 32-33 are the Poconos, Sussex County, NJ, the Hudson Valley (north of Westchester Co.) and Western-Central Mass.
Most of the reports we have gotten to the office have been patchy icing across higher elevation trees and metal surfaces. Most of the pavements are holding, even without treatment. That may change thru the day cause temps will be within a degree or two of where they’re at now.
What a nice day most folks are seeing with temps in the 50s and 60s region-wide. As many of you have seen in your forecasts we’re looking rain across most regions for the coastal storm Thurs Night – Friday as the track brings it over land. Central and NE PA, Hudson Valley, N. CT and W. MA are going to be set up for a wintry mix, however we are even concerned for a few other areas to the South of these regions.
The reason is despite very warm air aloft, a shallow cold front cross tonight. Winds behind this front are North or Northeasterly and take a look at the map below. Those are afternoon temps in the 20s and teens across Canada and some of this air tries to move to the surface. Therefore, we are keeping the threat that some places may mix during this storm. Also, still could see some wet snow at the tail end of this event.
Early Afternoon Temps 12-10-08
A lot of virga this morning, but there has been some light snow and dustings very early this morning in the Poconos and S. Hudson Valley. Mass. and Conn. may see some of these dustings as well. Otherwise, the majoity of this is virga.
Meanwhile, quite a roller-coaster ride for our temps this week. Arctic air today, then well above normal Wednesday, before colder air ends late week. Coldest spot we have seen this morning from this airmass: Watertown, NY at a beautiful -14 degrees.
GFS Model Forecast For Sun AM
An approaching low moving across the Great Lakes and a developing off shore low will bring the threat for light snow to most of the Mid-Atlantic & NE this weekend. Most areas are likely to see coatings – 1″ of snow from Interior CT southwestward into SE PA. Areas further south and along the coast may mix with rain for a time, with temperatures near or above freezing, keeping accumulations to slushy coatings to about 1/2″…with the highest amounts likely on colder surfaces.
Why aren’t forecasted snow amounts going to be higher? Ordinarily an Alberta Clipper like this over the Great Lakes would provide more in the way of snowfall for the area (maybe 1-2″) but the secondary low development of the coast usually disrupts wind and precipitation fields between the lows, which is where the I-95 corridor happens to be in this case. Watch for forecast & alert updates this weekend!
After a brief icing “scare” this morning in parts of Northeast PA, Northern NJ and the Hudson Valley of NY, attention shifts to cold air moving this direction from the west. Everything still looks pretty much as it did yesterday…precip should fall as rain…with maybe just a few higher elevations briefly mixing with wet snow at the very end of the event. Just watch for refreeze tonight! Temperatures will drop below 32 in most places, and as such any leftover wetness on the ground will freeze up.
Surface Map 7 AM 12/4/08
As for Saturday Night’s snow threat, it is beginning to look more likely that many areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have to engage in some sort of snow removal. Moisture is limited…but coatings up to an inch of snow is a distinct possibility by Sunday Afternoon. Stay tuned.
Seasonably mild and dry weather will be coming to an end across the area with a cold front on the way late Thursday. Temperatures should remain warm enough even in the higher elevations to preclude much of a snow threat with the precipitation associated with the frontal passage…though a few wet snow flakes may briefly mix in during the evening hours in those locations.
Looking ahead…there are snow threats for much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast late Saturday into Sunday as a trough of low pressure moves through the region. Moisture appears to be limited, but most places have the threat for an accumulation. Due to the positioning of the trough, the threat is just as valid in Maryland and Delaware as it is in some typically favored snow showers areas like North Jersey. Keep an eye out for updates in your daily forecasts (if applicable) tomorrow!
Trough Pattern for 12/7/08
It is December 2nd and I think we can officially say that winter has begun. Sorry for the lack of posts over the last month and a half as we have been setting up our winter operations. The early start to the year made things a little busy, but look for posts to be updated nearly daily and we are going to try and blog a little during storms to help you understand what is going on with the storm or event.
Good luck this season!!!
