No Tornado in South Brunswick, NJ

To update Sean’s earlier post today about the possible tornado in South Brunswick, NJ yesterday, the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, NJ has concluded there was in fact no tornado. They analyzed local radar data which did not show any low-level circultion. Additionally, they consulted with the local police who indicated there was a general directionality to the wind damage. In light of these facts, the damage in the area was determined to be caused by strong straight line winds.

Tornado in South Brunswick, NJ?

Yesterday, the hardest hit areas with the severe weather was a narrow section in Central and NE Jersey thru Middlesex, Union and Monmouth counties as well as Staten Island, NY. Storms kept refiring in the same areas and some of the stronger ones produced hail and strong winds. Most of the damage was from straight line winds and the Brunswicks in Jersey were likely hit hardest. So far, the worse damage was in South Brunswick. Now there was enough wind shear yesterday to think that a threat of a tornado was a small possibility and a lot of trees were knocked down in the area that some people are suspecting a tornado. The National Weather Service will likely have to go out and do an inspection. We will put an additional post up if we find out whether it was confirmed. The other problems yesterday were that storms began training over themselves and this led to flash flooding in typically congested areas and a region that is prone to flooding on roads.

From mycentraljersey.com

 

Weekend Weather

This weekend is shaping up as another weekend with plenty of threat for showers & storms, with the greater threat on Sunday with the slow approach of a cold front.  First, however will be the concern for severe storms this afternoon.  The main threat appears to be for areas that broke into sunshine earlier this morning, which generally was Southern NJ, SE Pennsylvania & Maryland, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe thunderstorm watch that will be in effect until 8 PM.  Further north, there could be a stronger storm or two, but should have fairly limited coverage.

As for the rest of the weekend, each day will feature a chance of showers & storms. In terms of coverage & intensity, Sunday will be the busier day, with the more widespread threat for showers as well as t-storms…some of which could again approach severe limits. Have a great weekend!

Manmade Tornadoes!

You read right! There is a movement afoot to actually make tornadoes! But in this case, don’t worry they wouldn’t cause damage, and might end up being very beneficial. An engineer from Canada is working on creating controlled tornadoes as an alternative energy source. The engineer’s theory seems solid…take energy that results from differences in heat. The idea is to take “waste” heat such as from a power plant and force it up an “Atmopshperic Vortex Engine” which draws cooler air in from the upper levels of atmosphere to create a temperature gradient. The gradient will create a vortex with moving air/winds. The resulting winds would be used to power a turbine. 

Seems like an interesting idea, only time will tell how well it actually works. To read more…visit http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25374237/ 

Severe Weather Impacts

Last week, I wrote a post about hail that fell in parts of the area, and some of the larger hail that fell in Upstate New York. As would be expected, the hail caused some damage to property. This included farms…many of which were hit quite hard, causing total losses of some crops and uncertain prospects for others come harvest time. Most of the damage happened in a matter of minutes from those severe storms last week.

Damaged Squash Kinderhook, NY Kenneth Aaron – TimesUnion

Not to be forgotten are the historic floods in the Midwest of the last several weeks. Many farm fields were under several feet of water. All of this will likely mean less available produce, especially corn for the summer months, and has already resulted in increased prices.

2008 Hurricane Outlook

I don’t believe we have talked about the hurricane season yet, but now as we approach July and the tropics tend to get a bit more active, now may be a good time. The National Hurricane Center released their outlook a few weeks ago and trends point towards a slightly above normal season. We already had our first weak Tropical Storm (Arthur) at the beginning of the month. Renowed hurricane forecasters from Colorado State, Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach agree that this will be an above normal season. Keep in mind though, that despite how intensive the research and analysis is, long-range hurricane forecasting is still a very fickle practice. In my opinion, it is also impossible to put an actual number or percentage on a certain area in the US being struck by a hurricane during a season. This would be like someone saying in 2007 that a certain city has a __% chance of being hit by a tornado in 2008. It is just about impossible to put a number on something that can not be predicted until an actual storm forms. 

NOAA: NHC 2008 Hurricane Season

Evening Update

The severe storm threat Sean talked about earlier on never really panned out this afternoon for most of New Jersey. But not too far away there were some heavier storms in Maryland, the Hudson Valley & Connecticut. However, most areas in between escaped with little in the way of activity. The Jersey shore was an exception where a few storms passed through earlier in the day as a weak boundary was in place.  Otherwise, don’t be entirely suprised if a few showers & storms currently over Western PA make a run at the area late tonight. But by that point, the severe threats should be significantly reduced and we’re probably just looking at ordinary rain & thundershowers. Have a good night!

Yesterday’s hail; More Severe Threats Today

Yesterday, the coverage of thunderstorms was not widespread, but the those that did form were over the populated NYC metro area. Several roadways became flooded because of the slow-moving thunderstorms. Once again, conditions were favorable for hail with these single cell storms and one of the more intense ones went over Essex County and the Newark area. In fact, a pilot at the Newark International Airport, reported a hail size of 1.75″, the size of golf balls! This was also observed in nearby Bayonne. Today is set up to be another day with scattered severe weather all across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, as hail, strong winds and torrential rains will once again threaten.

Weekend Prospects

It’s shaping up to be a 50-50 weekend. Despite the slightest threat for a shower or storm on Saturday, expect mainly dry conditions for most areas. It will feel a bit more like summer as temps warm back up into the 80’s along with a slight increase in humidity. Get those plans in on Saturday! Sunday is looking a bit cooler with at least a period or two of rain, some of which may be briefly heavy. Have a great weekend!

Upper-Level Low

The past few days the area has been under the influence of a strong upper-level low. This low was partially responsible for the Hail that many places across New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York reported. It also contributed to the instability that helped spawn the weak EF-0 tornado in Newburgh, NY on June 16. A low like this (more typical of March and April) usually causes a fair amount of afternoon cloudiness after a mostly sunny morning. The often difficult question that must be addressed each afternoon by our forecasters is the potential for showers and or t-storms. Today for instance, there was little in the way of dynamics in addition to the low which would suggest few if any showers. This was in fact the case, even in places across upstate and Central NY which were closer to the low, there was little in the way of shower activity today. 

Looking ahead to Friday, we are looking at a greater chance for showers and storms in the afternoon. This will be based partially on elevelated levels of instability and warmer surface temperatures. Time will tell how much actually develops. Like today, the severe threat will be rather low, though hail remains a possibility with such cold air in place above the surface. Thankfully this low will gradually lift out of the area through the weekend, though the threat of showers & storms remains, especially for Sunday.

500mb GFS Forecast 8 PM 6/19/08

Confirmed Tornado in Newburgh, NY

During the severe thunderstorms on Monday evening (June 16), there were a few isolated cells in the region ahead of the main line that had some rotation. One of these was in Newburgh, NY across the more suburban area near the Thruway along Route 52, which had sufficient rotation to generate a tornado. The tornado was weak, ranking as an EF-0 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale with winds in the range of 65-85 MPH. Three seperate, brief touchdowns were reported by the NWS Upton along a mile and a half path. The damage was what would be expected from an EF-0 tornado, mainly tree damage, but the tornado did cause a wall of a structure to collapse, which in turn caused the roof to cave in.   

Looking ahead, the northeast does not have any severe threats for the rest of the work-week, but we would not be surprised to see some small hail (pea to dime size) in any isolated t-storms that form, due to the closed low and unusually chilly air aloft.

Times Herald-Record – June 17, 2008

Hail!

As Sean and I mentioned yesterday, the possibility of seeing hail across the region was abnormally high. Based on reports from across the area, hail was observed in many places especially in North Jersey northward into NY. In fact, there were a few reports of hail with greater than 2″ diameter in upstate NY. Closer to home, WeatherWorks Meteorologist Tommy Else reported that in some places around our offices in Hackettstown that the hail actually covered the ground similar to the picture below from nearby Washington Township.

Hail in Washington Twp., NJ (Roger Pierson/nj.com)

It does appear as though the remainder of the week will feature quieter weather, despite the threat of an afternoon shower (perhaps a thundershower) mainly Wednesday and Thursday. The bigger story will be cooler temps, averaging in the 70’s.

5 PM Severe Weather Update

Right now, individual storm cells have been struggling to fire up. However, there is a very intense line of storms that extends on a line from Pittsburgh-Scranton-Albany. Wind damage will be threat especially from N. Jersey northward. Ingredients are also unusually good for hail, thanks in part to the upper-level low well to the Northwest. This will be a threat with the line as well. Already, upstate NY and PA have had numerous reports of severe hail (greater than penny-size). It’s likely shaping up to be a busy evening for several areas in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

New Week…New Severe Threat

Hope you had a good weekend and the Thunderstorms on Saturday did not pose too many problems. It is looking like we all get to do it again this afternoon. All of the ingredients for some strong to severe thunderstorms appear to be in place. Showers & storms will begin firing as early as late morning and will continue at times into the evening. The peak severe threat as one would expect will coincide with the end of peak heating, starting around 3 or 4 PM through about 10 PM. 

The main threats from these storms will be some gusty winds, hail and even heavy rain. in a somewhat unusual move for the region, the Storm Prediction Center not only put the area in a Moderate Risk for severe weather, but also an enhanced risk for wind gusts in excess of 75 MPH. Additionally, the threat for hail is greater today than it would be otherwise due to abnormally cold air above the surface. That colder air will spell a cooler rest of the week with highs in the 70’s.

Highest Heat Wave Temps (East Coast)

It looks like a cooler pattern moves in next week with an upper-trough digging into the Eastern portion of the country. Could be a little while until our next real hot spell, so here’s a quick recap of the highest (official) temps we found during the four-day heat wave from June 7-10 in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic:

Nashua, NH: 101…June 10
Manchester, NH: 100…June 10
Queens (LaGuardia), NY: 100…June 10 
Newark, NJ: 99…June 9/10
Baltimore, MD: 99…June 7/10
Washington, DC: 98…June 7
Atlantic City, NJ: 98…June 9
Philadelphia, PA: 98…June 10
Hartford, CT: 98…June 10