Summer Like Weekend on the Way

As we approach the weekend, it certainly will have a summer like feel out there. Too bad we won’t have 2 more days like Friday with warm temperatures and comfortable levels of humidity…a storm system moving in from the west has other plans for Saturday. It looks like there are 2 or 3 shots at precip late Friday Night through Saturday Night. The first coming early Saturday morning (which probably only impacts northern NJ & north), then a chance at 1 or 2 waves of showers & storms in the afternoon & evening. The good news is that this should allow for a good part of the midday to be dry to get in outdoor work & activities, just be aware it will be uncomfortably humid.

As I mentioned yesterday, there still is the potential for some strong storms in the afternoon. The primary threat would be gusty winds, though hail is also a concern. In any event have a good weekend & keep an eye to the sky tomorrow afternoon if outdoors.

Pleasant Spring Day

Not a whole lot of weather to talk about today! There has been nearly full sunshine so far today with low levels of humidity and pleasant breezes. That should continue through sunset. Tomorrow should be a repeat performance, wtih temperatures 5 degrees or so warmer, and some more clouds in the sky.

The next interesting weather day is shaping up to be Saturday. While the details are still a bit sketchy, the day could play out much like a carbon copy of Tuesday, with a morning round of showers followed by a break, and the potential for more showers & t-storms in the afternoon/evening. Additionally, the humidity will become noticable again on Saturday much like it was on Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has already put the area in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather on Saturday. Obviously there is much that can happen between now & then, but there certainly is the threat for some good storms on Saturday. Until then enjoy the splendid weather!

 

No Widespread Severe Storms Yesterday

As Ken discussed yesterday, it looked like the main severe thunderstorm threat was further north into the Hudson Valley and New England and that thinking was right on. There was one penny-sized hail report in Warwick, NY and the rest of the wind damage reports occurred in Massachusetts. Nonetheless, there were some strong storms that were scattered thru the Mid-Atlantic. However, we were a little surprised at the amount of sunshine that developed and that enabled temps to really sore high (Newark hit 87 as did NE Philly). So after the first few “summery” days of the year, we are back to more typical spring with a much more comfortable and pleasant air mass thru the rest of the work-week. Enjoy!

Severe T-Storm Threat

Hope you all had a great Memorial Day Holiday! For the first post-holiday work day, we have our first real summer-like day out there.  High temps will be near or above 80 in most cases, along with a touch of humidity. While not oppresively humid by July standards, dewpoints are in the mid 60’s and you will certainly feel it out there.

As for the severe thunderstorm threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central Jersey, the Lehigh Valley and points north into New England until 8 PM.  Storms are already popping in Northern NJ, into the Hudson Valley and Eastern Massachusetts, and more will likely form through the afternoon (some spots may see more than 1). The greatest threat posed by these storms would be some gusty winds & possibililty of hail especially between 3 & 8 PM. Note that the threat is greatest for the Hudson Valley northward, closer to the actual dynamics of this system. If outdoors, be sure to keep an eye to the sky this afternoon!

Current NWS Watches/Warnings (Svr. T-storm Watch: Pink, Svr. T-storm Warning: Orange)

A Great Memorial Day Weekend of Weather!

It has been several years since we have seen a completely dry Memorial Day weekend for 3 consecutive days across the Mid Atlantic region.  This year is the year especially after the cool and rainy trend we have seen.  It will be a great weekend to head to the beach as there will be plenty of sunshine and it will become progressively warmer each day.  Ocean temperatures will be running very cool however, anywhere from 55-60 degrees.  Have a great weekend and enjoy the sun!

 LBI Web cam image taken on May 23, 2008 – 4:30 PM

Maryland rainy conditions improving!

After experiencing dry conditions and fear of having another dry season like last year, the threat of an approaching drought quickly dissapeared for the Maryland Folks.  A very active pattern of troughs and periods of heavy rain impacted the state what seemed like on a daily basis since the middle of the month.  11 out of 21 days recorded at least 0.01 inch of rain or more.  Total precipitation from Baltimore to Northern VA has ranged from 8-10 inches which is roughly 6-7 inches well above normal for the region.  Three quarters of the rain occurred from May 8-12 with daily totals exceeding 1-2 inches. 

The good news is that High pressure will dominate the Mid Atlantic Seaboard which will bring in plenty of sunshine and significantly warmer temperatures for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.  Furthermore, it looks like we will manage to get in all 3 days of the extended weekend without a threat of rain.  Enjoy!

PM Update

Showers are popping up all thru PA-NJ-NY as are a couple t-storms. Interesting what happened this morning, we had fog in the area and that may have stabilized the atmosphere early on. It took longer for the instability clouds to form, but when they did (around Noon). Showers and storms are isolated, but with the approach of a cold front probably 40-60% of the area from DC to Boston will see a drop of rain. It was definitely good to have the first half of the day for lawn cutting and any other outdoor work that may have been needed!

 

April in May?

After a nice taste of late Spring Weather in April, the area has certainly seen its fair share of clouds and showers in May, espcially over the last week or so. Today marks the 7th consecutive day with measurable rainfall here at our office. 

What’s to blame? It’s that pesky Upper-Level Low (and its relative the strong ridge over the Central US) Sean talked about yesterday. Also known as a cutoff low (as in cutoff from the normal west to east flow), this low is taking its time to move. However, all indications seem to point to the low gradually shifting east as we approach the all important unofficial start to summer this Friday. Unfortunately, showers are in the forecast through Friday (mainly in the afternoon as has been the trend recently). But Saturday right through Memorial Day are looking dry at this point, as highs will rebound from the 50’s and 60’s into the 70’s and probably the 80’s in a lot of places by Memorial Day. 

 

Stay Dry!

 

Where’s the Gold?

In this stubburn trough / upper-low that we are stuck in, the weather is often quite changable. Sometimes, the fast moving nature of the systems can lead to quick clearing. Yesterday evening, after yet another round of showers. It briefly cleared here in NW NJ and then one more renegade shower pushed thru. The sun was out at about 8 PM and this set up one awesome rainbow. In fact, a double rainbow could be seen in its entirely from one side to the other. Pictures could not capture the great arc the rainbow had and the colors were also clearly visible and bright. Not a bad way to end the weekend!

Another Rainy Friday

Low pressure over the Appalachians is bringing more widespread rain showers to the Mid-Atlantic. Don’t mistaken this Friday for last Friday as today’s rain is not going to feature that continuous, long-lasting soaking rain. Instead waves of showers move in and some of them will be steady. As the low moves to the east-northeast during the day, the showers are going to start breaking up, but we don’t think they end completely. Some upper-level features become more organize and area of rain, though more scattered, will continue across the area. Despite the threat of a shower each Weekend day, the only time periods likely are later in the PM and the activity is mostly light and isolated.

Maryland May Rain

After a dry few months aggrivated a long-term drought problem in Maryland, there has been too much rain during the month of May, especially the last week. Two seperate systems brought rain totals over an inch and there is another wet low pressure system coming in for tomorrow. Some spots will see heavy rain with a half to one inch, but it is quick moving and should not be anything more than that. Below is a map from the National Weather Service in Sterling displaying total rainfall from May 8-12:

 

What will a developing West Coast Ridge mean for us?

Over the next couple days, there are some key signs pointing to a very strong ridge or area of high pressure. So what does that mean for the weather in the East? Typically, a West Coast Ridge means an East Coast Trough and when one feature is strong, the other usually is too. A trough brings in low pressure, cooler than normal weather and more frequent precipitation threats. This looks to be our fate heading into the weekend and early next week.  

May Storm

An unusual spring storm produced widespread rain, wind and coastal flooding yesterday to a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic. What made the storm intense was the low pressure center continuing to tighten and strenthen. This increased the winds and continued the strong onshore flow that produced a lot of coastal flooding in MD, DE, NJ. The hardest hit areas with rainfall was Maryland, especially Frederick County where numerous roads had to be closed. Meanwhile, Central Delaware and the South Jersey coast were hit with the worst winds. Below is a table showing the top precip amounts and peak wind speeds in the region: 

Rainy Friday

This first full week of May is ending on a very wet note, something more like what would be expected in April.  A decent area of low pressure is spreading a good amount of rain into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England and will cause most areas to have a bonafide “washout” today.  Below is the GFS expected 24 hour rainfall from 8 PM Thursday Night until 8 PM Friday.  Note the vast area expected to receive in excess of one inch, with a good chunk of that region expected over 1.5 inches. 

 

GFS Forecast Precip 8 PM 5/8 – 8 PM 5/9

Even if these totals are slightly overdone, a decent soaking rain is in order.  Ordinarily with a rain event like this, there may be some flooding concerns, but since it has been on the dry side recently, the only flooding expected would be mainly confined to areas with poor drainage.  An active pattern is expected next week, with threats for rain on Monday and again in the middle of the week.  If these systems proves to be rainmakers, there would be a greater vulnerability to flooding not only from poor drainage, but perhaps from streams and rivers as well..

Heavy rain to end the week!

A cold front moving through the region today will stall and team up with a low pressure system currently across the Midwest.  Most of the showers will be dissipating this morning but as the low intensifies off the Delaware coast we will be looking at a swath of heavy rain across much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast regions.  The heaviest rains will occur in a band from Northern VA and MD, through DE, eastern PA, NJ and into lower NY / Long Island and southern New England areas.  Total rainfall from this system may range from 1-3 inches area-wide.  This will open the door for some flood potential especially on roadways, low-lying and poor drainage areas.  See the map to the left for the best flood potential areas highlighted in red as well as the likely time frame of the heaviest rains.